This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 53% to break even | 4%–50% | 36 points shortwon 17%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 53% to break even | 34%–71% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 187.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 174.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 28%–60% |
| 9 points shortwon 43%, needs 53% |
| 102 |
| -85.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 170 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 222 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 181 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 183 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 140 | -47.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 52 | -135.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 251 | +63.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 228 | +40.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 170 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 117 | -70.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 141 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 256 | +68.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 194 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 145 | -42.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 259 | +71.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 255 | +67.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 222 | +34.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 265 | +77.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 108 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 219 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 175 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 112 | -75.5 | Lost |
| +109at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 48% to break even |
| -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 178.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 54% to break even | -23.2Not beating its price |
| Under 187.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.4Not beating its price |
| Under 189.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 66% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -106at DraftKings |
| 11 of 17· last season65%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 completionsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 passing TDsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 passing TDsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 66% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 57% to break even | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 39% to break even | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 completionsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 54% to break even | -29.6Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsCam Ward · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -30.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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