This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 10% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 10% to break even | 5%–56% | 10 points betterwon 20%, needs 10% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 10% to break even | 2%–35% | evenwon 10%, needs 10% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1414%needs 10% to break even | 5%–35% | 4 points betterwon 14%, needs 10% |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 10% to break even | 6%–64% | 15 points betterwon 25%, needs 10% |
| Last season | 1 of 1010%needs 10% to break even | 2%–35% | evenwon 10%, needs 10% |
| Every game | 2 of 1414%needs 10% to break even | 5%–35% | 4 points betterwon 14%, needs 10% |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 6 on the road. Tonight: TEN allows 0.7 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 8th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How TEN defends running backs
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Every Jaleel McLaughlin game, newest first: whether McLaughlin scored a touchdown.