This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 8% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 425%needs 8% to break even | 6%–64% | 17 points betterwon 25%, needs 8% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 425%needs 8% to break even | 6%–64% | 17 points betterwon 25%, needs 8% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 425%needs 8% to break even | 6%–64% | 17 points betterwon 25%, needs 8% |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 8% to break even | 6%–64% | 17 points betterwon 25%, needs 8% |
| Every game | 1 of 425%needs 8% to break even | 6%–64% | 17 points betterwon 25%, needs 8% |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: CIN allows 0 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How CIN defends tight ends
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Every Josh Cuevas game, newest first: whether Cuevas scored a touchdown.