This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 16% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 16% to break even | 5%–56% | 4 points betterwon 20%, needs 16% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 16% to break even | 2%–35% | 6 points shortwon 10%, needs 16% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 16% to break even | 2%–25% | 9 points shortwon 7%, needs 16% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 16% to break even | 0%–73% | 16 points shortwon 0%, needs 16% |
| Last season | 1 of 147%needs 16% to break even | 2%–27% | 9 points shortwon 7%, needs 16% |
| Every game | 1 of 157%needs 16% to break even | 2%–25% | 9 points shortwon 7%, needs 16% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 7 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 1 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 12th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9). How NYG defends running backs
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