This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 5% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 5% to break even | 0%–35% | 5 points shortwon 0%, needs 5% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 5% to break even | 0%–21% | 5 points shortwon 0%, needs 5% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 150%needs 5% to break even | 0%–15% | 5 points shortwon 0%, needs 5% |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 5% to break even | 0%–31% | 5 points shortwon 0%, needs 5% |
| Last season | 1 of 176%needs 5% to break even | 1%–23% | 1 points betterwon 6%, needs 5% |
| Every game | 1 of 234%needs 5% to break even | 1%–17% | 1 points shortwon 4%, needs 5% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 11 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 0.4 touchdowns a game to wide receivers, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How CAR defends wide receivers
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Kameron Johnson game, newest first: whether Johnson scored a touchdown.
| Date | Opponent | Result | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| This season | |||
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 18 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 1 TD | Won | |
| Wk 5 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost | |