This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 55% to break even | 54%–93% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 55% to break even | 59%–92% | 25 points betterwon 80%, needs 55% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 55% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 11 of 1479%needs 55% to break even | 57%–91% | 24 points better |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsXavier Worthy |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsXavier Worthy |
| Every game | 14 of 1974%needs 55% to break even | 55%–87% | 19 points betterwon 74%, needs 55% |
| 4 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +4.5 | Won |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 52% to break even |
| -33.6Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsXavier Worthy · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 37% to break even | -27.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -116at Kalshi |
| 9 of 14· last season64%needs 54% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsXavier Worthy · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even | -26.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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