This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 333%needs 64% to break even | 8%–75% | 30 points shortwon 33%, needs 64% | 0.7receptions |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 333%needs 64% to break even | 8%–75% | 30 points shortwon 33%, needs 64% | 0.7receptions |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 333%needs 64% to break even | 8%–75% | 30 points shortwon 33%, needs 64% | 0.7receptions |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 64% to break even | 8%–75% | 30 points shortwon 33%, needs 64% | 0.7receptions |
| Every game | 1 of 333% |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: SEA allows 9.3 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How SEA defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 8%–75% |
| 30 points shortwon 33%, needs 64% |
| 0.7receptions |
| +146at Kalshi |
| 2 of 3· last 5 games, 2 skipped67%needs 41% to break even |
| -5.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 1 of 3· last 5 games, 2 skipped33%needs 34% to break even |
| -9.6Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsCyrus Allen · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETRice out: next up at WR | +134at Kalshi | 1 of 3· last 5 games, 2 skipped33%needs 43% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsCyrus Allen · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETRice out: next up at WR | -161at Kalshi | 2 of 3· last 5 games, 2 skipped67%needs 62% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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