This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 56% to break even | 19%–65% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 56% to break even | 22%–61% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 8 of 2040%needs 56% to break even | 24%–58% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 10 of 25 |
Tonight SEA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against KC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 30.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsSam Darnold |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 203.5 passing yardsSam Darnold |
| 26%–56% |
| 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| 51 |
| +20.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 29 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 22 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 45 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 38 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 21 | 36 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 20 | 17 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 26 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 34 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 36 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 30 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 26 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 26 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 44 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 12 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 24 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 31 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 27 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 34 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 26 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 18 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 33 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 23 | -7.5 | Lost |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 12 of 20· last season60%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +145at Bovada |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 41% to break even |
| -8.3Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 39% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 rushing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 rushing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -116at DraftKings | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 213.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 48% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 completionsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 11 of 20· last season55%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.9Not beating its price |
| Over 253.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +175at Bovada | 8 of 20· last season40%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Under 193.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +185at Bovada | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 35% to break even | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 223.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 225.5 passing yardsSam Darnold · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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