This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | won by 0.6runs |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 38% to break even | 27%–73% | 12 points betterwon 50%, needs 38% | won by 0.7runs |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 38% to break even | 33%–72% | 16 points betterwon 53%, needs 38% | won by 0.2runs |
| This season | 73 of 17242%needs 38% to break even | 36%–49% | 5 points betterwon 42%, needs 38% | won by 0.3runs |
| Last season |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 3 of 7 against MIL · 65 of 167 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
First 3 innings margin in each game against TB -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB -0.5 first 7 innings spreadTampa Bay Rays |
| 62 of 16238%needs 38% to break even |
| 32%–45% |
| 1 points betterwon 38%, needs 38% |
| won by 0.2runs |
| Every game | 135 of 33440%needs 38% to break even | 36%–45% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | won by 0.2runs |
| Opponent |
|---|
| First 3 innings margin |
|---|
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 15 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 18 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 28 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 10 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 3 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 1 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | -7 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jul 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 30 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 19 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 13 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| +129at Kalshi |
| 90 of 172· this season52%needs 44% to break even1 of 7 against MIL · 74 of 167 on the road |
| Record is this season's |
| -3.9Not beating its price |
| TB -1.5 spreadTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +193at Polymarket | 78 of 172· this season45%needs 34% to break even0 of 7 against MIL · 65 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| TB -0.5 first 5 innings spreadTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 87 of 172· this season51%needs 42% to break even1 of 7 against MIL · 75 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -6.7Not beating its price |
| TB to win moneylineTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +107at Polymarket | 105 of 172· this season61%needs 48% to break even3 of 7 against MIL · 82 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| TB +0.5 first 7 innings spreadTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 106 of 172· this season62%needs 59% to break even4 of 7 against MIL · 88 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 team totalTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | -151at Polymarket | 125 of 172· this season73%needs 60% to break even3 of 7 against MIL · 114 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| TB +0.5 first 5 innings spreadTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 112 of 172· this season65%needs 61% to break even4 of 7 against MIL · 102 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 83 of 162· last season51%needs 39% to break even2 of 7 against MIL · 85 of 167 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 109 of 172· this season63%needs 51% to break even3 of 7 against MIL · 100 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 team totalTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 96 of 172· this season56%needs 45% to break even1 of 7 against MIL · 90 of 167 on the road | Record is this season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 42% to break even3 of 7 against MIL · 48 of 167 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Rays · Today 8:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 121 of 162· last season75%needs 61% to break even4 of 7 against MIL · 119 of 167 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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