This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 38% to break even | 27%–86% | 22 points betterwon 60%, needs 38% | lost by 0.2runs |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 38% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | won by 0.1runs |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 38% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | won by 0.1runs |
| This season | 75 of 17144%needs 38% to break even | 38%–50% | 6 points betterwon 44%, needs 38% | won by 0.4runs |
| Last season |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 2 of 7 against TB · 82 of 171 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
First 3 innings margin in each game against MIL -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL to win moneylineMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET |
| 70 of 17141%needs 38% to break even |
| 35%–47% |
| 3 points betterwon 41%, needs 38% |
| won by 0.3runs |
| Every game | 145 of 34242%needs 38% to break even | 38%–47% | 5 points betterwon 42%, needs 38% | won by 0.4runs |
| Opponent |
|---|
| First 3 innings margin |
|---|
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 23 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 11 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 9 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 8 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 29 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 24 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 21 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jul 8 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 7 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 10 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 8 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 5 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 25 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 22 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 20 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 14 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 16 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 23 | -6 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 8 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 3 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 26 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 11 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 30 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 13 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jul 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | -5 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 21 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 11 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jun 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 1 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 31 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 23 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 22 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 18 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 16 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | -9 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 16 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | -10 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| -123at Polymarket |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 55% to break even4 of 7 against TB · 115 of 171 at home |
| 6.7Good |
| MIL -0.5 first 7 innings spreadMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 47% to break even3 of 7 against TB · 96 of 171 at home | 4.1Good |
| Over 2.5 team totalMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 14 of 15· last 15 games93%needs 64% to break even5 of 7 against TB · 131 of 171 at home | 1.9Slight |
| Over 2.5 first 5 innings totalMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 136 of 171· this season80%needs 66% to break even6 of 7 against TB · 134 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -0.8Not beating its price |
| MIL -1.5 spreadMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +185at Polymarket | 80 of 171· this season47%needs 35% to break even3 of 7 against TB · 79 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| MIL +0.5 first 7 innings spreadMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 63% to break even6 of 7 against TB · 115 of 171 at home | -3.1Not beating its price |
| MIL +0.5 first 5 innings spreadMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even6 of 7 against TB · 123 of 171 at home | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 team totalMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 82 of 171· this season48%needs 34% to break even2 of 7 against TB · 83 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -4.6Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 team totalMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 105 of 171· this season61%needs 47% to break even3 of 7 against TB · 108 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 game total, MIL gamesMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 91 of 171· last season53%needs 39% to break even2 of 7 against TB · 85 of 171 at home | Record is last season's | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 first 5 innings totalMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 82 of 171· this season48%needs 38% to break even2 of 7 against TB · 92 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| MIL -0.5 first 5 innings spreadMilwaukee Brewers · Today 8:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 87 of 171· this season51%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 against TB · 95 of 171 at home | Record is this season's | -9.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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