This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 34% to break even | 13%–56% | 4 points shortwon 30%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 34% to break even | 8%–41% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 34% to break even | 3%–45% | 19 points shortwon 14%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 13 of 3438%needs 34% to break even | 26%–52% | 5 points betterwon 38%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 14 of 4134%needs 34% to break even | 23%–47% | 1 points betterwon 34%, needs 34% |
Tonight PSG plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against LYON. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | NAN | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 19 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | METZ | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 13 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | METZ | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 17 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 9 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 17 | NAN | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 game total, PSG gamesPSG · Sun, Oct 25, 3:45 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG -1.5 spreadPSG · Sun, Oct 25, 3:45 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 14 of 34· last season41%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price | |
| PSG to win moneylinePSG · Sun, Oct 25, 3:45 PM ET | -251at Kalshi | 24 of 34· last season71%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.