This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 41% to break even | 0%–35% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | won by 1goals |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 41% to break even | 0%–21% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | won by 0.7goals |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 41% to break even | 5%–33% | 27 points shortwon 13%, needs 41% | won by 0.9goals |
| This season | 0 of 70%needs 41% to break even | 0%–28% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% | won by 0.7goals |
| Last season | 10 of 3429%needs 41% to break even | 18%–43% | 11 points shortwon 29%, needs 41% | won by 1.3goals |
| Every game | 10 of 4124%needs 41% to break even | 15%–37% | 16 points shortwon 24%, needs 41% | won by 1.2goals |
Tonight PSG plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against HAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 22 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against PSG -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | NAN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 19 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | -2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | METZ | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 13 | -2 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | METZ | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | NAN | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | +685at Kalshi | 2 of 7· this season29%needs 13% to break even4 of 22 on the road | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 game total, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | PIN-102at Pinnacle | 23 of 34· last season68%needs 50% to break even14 of 22 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price | |
| Both teams score: Yes, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 58% to break even12 of 22 on the road | Record is this season's | -13.6Not beating its price | |
| Both teams score: No, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 20 of 34· last season59%needs 49% to break even10 of 22 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 3.5 game total, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | PRX-115at betPARX | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 53% to break even8 of 22 on the road | Record is this season's | -28.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 game total, PSG gamesParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 34· last season18%needs 35% to break even3 of 22 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price | |
| PSG to win moneylineParis Saint Germain · Fri, Oct 30, 2:00 PM ET | -385at Bovada | 24 of 34· last season71%needs 79% to break even14 of 22 on the road | Record is last season's | -33.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.