This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 50% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points betterwon 60%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 50% to break even | 27%–73% | evenwon 50%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 50% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points betterwon 53%, needs 50% |
| This season | 5 of 863%needs 50% to break even | 35%–84% | 12 points betterwon 63%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 28 of 3874%needs 50% to break even | 61%–84% | 23 points betterwon 74%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 33 of 4672%needs 50% to break even | 60%–81% | 21 points betterwon 72%, needs 50% |
Tonight RAY plays at home, as the favorite, against ELC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
RAY goals in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | RAY goals | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | GIR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | MLL | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | OVI | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | MLL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | OVI | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | GIR | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 team totalRayo Vallecano · Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 AM ET | -119at Polymarket | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 54% to break even | -30.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 game total, RAY gamesRayo Vallecano · Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 AM ET | PRX+102at betPARX | 24 of 38· last season63%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 game total, RAY gamesRayo Vallecano · Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 AM ET | PIN-111at Pinnacle | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price | ||
| RAY to win moneylineRayo Vallecano · Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 AM ET | PIN-123at Pinnacle | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 55% to break even | -34.0Not beating its price | ||
| RAY -0.5 spreadRayo Vallecano · Sat, Oct 24, 8:00 AM ET | LVG-127at LowVig | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 56% to break even | -34.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.