This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 43% to break even | 13%–56% | 13 points shortwon 30%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 3 of 933%needs 43% to break even | 14%–60% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 16 of 3842%needs 43% to break even | 30%–55% | 1 points shortwon 42%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 19 of 4740%needs 43% to break even | 29%–52% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
Tonight VIL plays at home, as the favorite, against ESP. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, VIL gamesVillarreal · Fri, Oct 30, 4:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIL -1 spreadVillarreal · Fri, Oct 30, 4:00 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | MLL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 2 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | OVI | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | GIR | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 20 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 14 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | MLL | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 23 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | GIR | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 15 | OVI | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 64% to break even |
| -20.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 12 of 28· last season43%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -30.5Not beating its price |
| VIL to win moneylineVillarreal · Fri, Oct 30, 4:00 PM ET | -176at Bovada | 22 of 38· last season58%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -38.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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