This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 21% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 21% to break even | 5%–56% | 1 points shortwon 20%, needs 21% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 21% to break even | 7%–46% | 1 points shortwon 20%, needs 21% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 21% to break even | 13%–48% | 6 points betterwon 27%, needs 21% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 21% to break even | 3%–45% | 7 points shortwon 14%, needs 21% |
| Last season | 10 of 3826%needs 21% to break even | 16%–39% | 5 points betterwon 26%, needs 21% |
| Every game | 11 of 4524%needs 21% to break even | 16%–36% | 3 points betterwon 24%, needs 21% |
Tonight TOT plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against CHE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against tot to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | WOL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | BUR | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 | WHU | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | WOL | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | WHU | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | BUR | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.