Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Odds (Nov 11): Spread, Total & Trends

The Daily Hit

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres Odds (Nov 11): Spread, Total & Trends · The Daily Hit

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Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

54% to win · best -131

Home

Buffalo Sabres

46% to win · best +105

SpreadTotalTo win

TB-1.5+189

O 6.5-121

-131

BUF+1.5-228

U 6.5-103

+105

Books

No market

Polymarket

No market

Kalshi

54%46%

Average

54%46%

BUF +1.5 spread: Buffalo Sabres can lose by up to 1 goal and the bet still winsO 6.5 total: wins if the two teams score 7 or more goals combined-131 bet $131 to win $100+105 bet $100 to win $105The badge is the book with that price (tap a price to see every book's); green pays more than the bet's chances call forBet types explained →

Prices

Outlined is the best price on each side; green pays more than the chances call for, and a small negative edge is normal. Tap a price to bet it. What the numbers mean

Book	Moneyline		Spread		Total
Book	TB	BUF	TB -1.5	BUF +1.5	O 6.5	U 6.5
Chance it wins	54.0%fair odds -117	46.0%fair odds +117	32.5%fair odds +208	67.5%fair odds -208	52.0%fair odds -108	48.0%fair odds +108
Edge at the best price	-4.8%Normal	-5.6%Poor price	-6.1%Poor price	-2.9%Normal	-5.0%Poor price	-5.4%Poor price

Before you bet

Who's hurt, rest, the weather, form and how the two teams match up. Injuries can change up to game time.

KeyBank Center · Buffalo, NY

TBAway · 11-4-2 overall · 3-4-2 on the road3rd in the Atlantic Division

Last 5: LWWWL
Rest: 2 days off
Injuries: 1 listed, 1 out
Goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy · played most13 games · 88.3% of shots saved · 2.85 goals allowed a gameDennis Hildeby4 games · 88.0% of shots saved · 2.95 goals allowed a game

Brayden Point

Injured Reserve

Undisclosed · back ~Dec 2

BUFHome · 8-6-3 overall · 4-5-0 at home6th in the Atlantic Division

Last 5: WWLWL
Rest: 2 days off
Injuries: 4 listed, 4 out
Goalies: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · played most11 games · 87.8% of shots saved · 3.27 goals allowed a gameColten Ellis7 games · 88.4% of shots saved · 3.09 goals allowed a game

Konsta Helenius	C	Out	Upper Body · back ~Nov 17
Alex Lyon

When TB has the puck

This season	TB offense	BUF defense
Goals a game	3.76th most	3.3 allowed13th most
Shots a game	29.95th most	27.1 allowed12th fewest
Power plays	19.4% scored11th lowest	71.2% stopped7th lowest

When BUF has the puck

This season	BUF offense	TB defense
Goals a game	2.911th fewest	3.1 allowed15th fewest
Shots a game	28.410th most	24.7 allowed3rd fewest
Power plays	14.3% scored3rd lowest	72.9% stopped9th lowest

Ranks out of 32 teams this season. Green: among the league's best third at it. Red: among its worst third.

More season numbers

Last time they met BUF beat TB 4–2 · Apr 6 · last season

Team	1	2	3	Final
TB	1	1	0	2
BUF	2	1	1	4

Before you bet

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Trends

Bets in this game that have kept winning, more often than their price needs. A trend counts every recent game, whoever the opponent, and some are luck.

Every trend in this game

Team trends

Periods

Bets not beating their price they've won less often than their price needs

Trends

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Prediction markets

On Polymarket and Kalshi a contract pays $1 if it comes true, so its price is the crowd's chance. Charts follow the home team.

Polymarket

Not listed on Polymarket.

Polymarket

Not listed on Polymarket.

KalshiTrade ↗

TB54.0%

BUF46.0%

$16,800 available at this price$16,000 available at this price

BUF 45.0% → 46.0% todayabout $1K traded · BUF win chance, last 24 hours
about $856 traded today

KalshiTrade ↗

TB54.0%

BUF46.0%

about $1K traded · BUF win chance, last 24 hours
about $856 traded today

Every number

Polymarket and Kalshi sell the spread and total at every number, not just the one most books use. Each row shows the chance that bet wins, from their prices, and the best price on each side at any book, sportsbooks' alternate lines and fees included.

Spread

Bet	Chance	Best price	Other side, best price
TB +2.5	85% chance	-609	BUF -2.5+490
TB +1.5	75% chance	-340	BUF -1.5+266
TB -1.5Most books' number	33% chance	+189$63 available at this price	BUF +1.5-228$410 available at this price
TB -2.5	21% chance	+331	BUF +2.5-430

Total

Bet	Chance	Best price	Other side, best price
Over 3.5	90% chance	-967	Under 3.5+756
Over 4.5	83% chance	-564	Under 4.5+425

Sharp money

Big single bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, and how much money is on this game. What bettors did, not a reason to follow them.

Money tradedabout $1K

about $1K traded

Riding on it now$2Kpaid out when the game ends

Sharp money, last 24 hoursNoneno trades of $5,000 or more

No single trade of $5,000 or more on this game in the last 24 hours.

"To win" chances average the sportsbooks (with their cut taken out), Polymarket and Kalshi. How it works

Bet	How often it won	Trend score
Game line · Total See the bet with Pro	9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 55% to break even	-1.8Not beating its price
Game line · Moneyline See the bet with Pro	10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even	-2.3Not beating its price
Game line · Total See the bet with Pro	8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 51% to break even	-2.4Not beating its price
Game line · Team total See the bet with Pro	11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 51% to break even	-3.0Not beating its price

Bet	How often it won	Trend score
Game line · 3rd period total See the bet with Pro	13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 64% to break even	-0.6Not beating its price
Game line · 3rd period spread See the bet with Pro	7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even	-1.0Not beating its price
Game line · 2nd period total See the bet with Pro	11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 68% to break even	-1.4Not beating its price
Game line · 1st period total See the bet with Pro	9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 59% to break even	-1.5Not beating its price

Pro

See the bets behind these records with Pro.

The side, the number, the best price, every game behind it and the same bet at other numbers. $4.99 a month, cancel any time.

Unlock every trend

Bet	How often it won	Trend score
Game line · 3rd period spread See the bet with Pro	9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 66% to break even	-1.6Not beating its price
Game line · Team total See the bet with Pro	4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 45% to break even	-1.7Not beating its price
Game line · 2nd period spread See the bet with Pro	5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 36% to break even	-1.7Not beating its price
Game line · Team total See the bet with Pro	4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 57% to break even	-1.8Not beating its price

This season	TB	BUF
Shots saved	88.2%7th lowest	88.0%6th lowest
Shots that score	12.4%9th highest	10.4%8th lowest
Penalty minutes a game	8.26th fewest	9.314th fewest
Power play goals against	13	17
Short handed goals against	0	0
Power play goals	12	8

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

Prices